The Secret Behind the Saves: How Goalkeepers Decide Penalty Shots in the World Cup

In one of the most famous moments in World Cup penalty shootout history, Tim Krul focused on only one thing: the Costa Rican player's eyes. "You can see who is more nervous," Krul said with a smile. “They couldn't put the ball where they wanted.” This was proven when Krul managed to thwart kicks from Bryan Ruiz and Michael Umana, bringing the Netherlands to the semifinals of the 2014 World Cup. This historic moment occurred right after Louis van Gaal decided to include Krul as a penalty specialist, which was the first time in the history of this competition. That moment not only became part of World Cup history, but also had a huge influence on the way the game is played today. This marked the moment when the focus in the penalty shootout – at least regarding its most important element – ​​shifted from the kicker to the goalkeeper.

For many years, much thought has focused on a player's ability to deal with pressure, whether they have the "mentality" to do so. However, the evolution of sports science and better technical training has taken us past the point where penalties are considered a "lottery". Much evidence suggests that goalkeepers are now introducing much greater variation into penalty shootouts. They have been a real difference, as shown by Emiliano Martinez for Argentina and Jordan Pickford for England. With Martinez, his proactivity was so high that FIFA had to change the rules regarding goalkeeper movement. Meanwhile, Hugo Lloris showed another side with France, as he didn't even come close to a penalty kick in the 2022 final. The contrast between the goalkeepers was the difference between winning the penalty shootout - and winning the World Cup - or not. If players believe they can beat the goalie, they will. However, if there is any doubt, the impact can be much greater.

Krul revealed, "I love penalty shootouts. I love it, because I have five chances, minimum. And that's why I feel like the percentages are more in my favor, because I know one or two of them will be very nervous." In other words, they may feel loneliness as a kicker; goalkeepers can take advantage of that. Krul recalled the moment in Salvador when he was preparing for the penalty shootout, saw the Dutch flag and the World Cup flag, then realized, "this is real."


In fact, if elite players wanted to, they could easily put the ball in the top corner - a place the goalkeeper can't reach - at any time. All players like Diego Maradona, Lionel Messi, Roberto Baggio and Michel Platini can definitely do it. However, all of them have missed important penalties. "I spoke with all the strikers and midfielders in our squad, even the best are affected by psychology," explained Krul. "I even thought, 'Gosh, you are the guy who has scored in the biggest Champions League games and you are affected by this.' So there's a lot going on."

This is why Krul and other goalkeepers like Martinez have completely moved away from the old approach of deciding beforehand where to jump, to give themselves the best chance of saving if they go in the right direction. It's already considered too much of a lottery. Therefore, Krul looked into the kicker's eyes. "Today's players change their minds in the last second. And you can see the more nervous ones. They can't get the ball into the top corner or the bottom corner. That's what you're looking for, where they kick with 85% confidence instead of 100%."

"You have to be able to read and react, of course. You need explosiveness and experience, but it's more and more psychology. It's a unique situation, basically." Therefore, Pickford now treats his approach as if it were a trade secret. When asked if he had anything new for Saturday, he insisted he wouldn't give it away as if it were an attempt at industrial espionage. "It's my job to make saves, and in tournaments, I always make saves in penalty shootouts for England and I hope to continue that," he said. "We trust each other - they believe I can save the penalty and I believe they can score it."

However, it is here that Krul and the other goalkeepers are now fully aware of the changes. "The pressure is completely on the kicker. And that's why emotional control is so important in moments like this." Goalkeepers, more than ever, have been the real difference.