Why Don't We Know Where Some of the Third Place Teams Will Play Yet? A Table of 495 Rows Becomes the Answer

After Ecuador pulled off a surprise upset by beating Germany to earn a place in the knockout stages of the World Cup, an atmosphere of emotion and joy enveloped the stadium. The team had just delivered one of the best days in their history, and the country's president declared the following day a national holiday. However, what will happen next in the tournament? They are still waiting to find out who they will face in Round 32.

The answer to the question of who plays where is located in a 495-line table on page 80 of "Annexe C: Combinations for the eight best third-placed teams" in the FIFA regulations for the tournament. In the new World Cup format involving 48 teams, eight of the 12 best third-placed teams will advance to the knockout stages. This means there are 495 possible combinations of third-place teams that could advance.

FIFA does not sort or rank the third ranked team in the best eight; they consider these teams as a set. So, once we know the eight third-place teams that qualified, all we need to do is go to the specific rows in this table to see where each of those teams will be placed in the bracket.

For example, here is the first page of "options" for how the match would be structured if a certain combination of groups resulted in the third-place team advancing. If Groups E, J, I, F, H, G, L, and K had the third-placed team advance to the knockout stages, the third-placed team from Group J would face the first-placed team from Group B. However, this scenario is no longer possible based on the results so far.

The main reason for this table is to ensure that the third place team that qualifies does not directly meet an opponent from their group. This predetermined arrangement ensures that no third-place team will face a team from their group until at least the quarter-finals. This also helps ensure all teams get enough rest — organizers don't want teams playing two games in three days.

This table may look complicated, but there are clear patterns in it. Certain matches in the Round of 32 are always more likely than others. For example, as long as the third-place team from Group L qualifies, they are guaranteed to face the winner of Group K in every possible scenario. This is also why the United States, as long as they win Group D, will very likely face Bosnia and Herzegovina (or Qatar, if they manage to finish third in Group B) in the Round of 32.

Heading into Friday's matches, Sweden, Ecuador and Bosnia and Herzegovina had guaranteed spots in the knockout stages as the third-placed teams. This eliminates many third-place team combinations. There are now only 126 possible combinations left, making the outlook for some of the matches in Round 32 much clearer. For example, the winner of Group I (France) will almost certainly face the third-placed team from Group F (Sweden). However, there are still 20 (out of 126) scenarios — all highly unlikely — that could lead to a match with the third-placed team from Group D, G, or H. Considering only how many scenarios from the FIFA table lead to a particular match does not fully reflect the likelihood of that outcome, as it does not take into account the expected results of group stage matches.